News and Information

Hawaii 2045: Population 1.65 Million; Job Growth .75 Percent

The State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) recently released its report on “Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawaii to 2045.” Using data from and tables based upon data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the report forecasts growth statewide as well as by county for the period 2016-2045. Some figures of interest to employers include:

Population:

• Total resident population projected to increase from 1.43 million in 2016 to 1.65 million in 2045, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5 percent.

Demographics:

• The elderly population (ages 65 and over) is projected to increase its share of the total population from 17.1 percent to 23.8 percent.
• The old age dependency ratio compares the size of the elderly population to the size of the active working-age population (ages 18-64) to provide an indicator of the burden on the working population. The old age dependency ratio increases from 27.8 percent in 2016 to 42.6 percent in 2045.

Employment:

• Total jobs projected to increase from 857,951 in 2016 to 1,066,000 in 2045, an average annual growth of 0.75 percent.
  • For comparison, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released projections last year for national employment growth of 0.7 percent annually through 2026.
• Total civilian wage and salary jobs projected to increase from 666,998 in 2016 to 784,400 in 2045, an average annual growth rate of 0.56 percent.
• Total self-employed jobs projected to increase from 190,953 in 2016 to 281,700 in 2045, an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent.
• Due to the number of individuals in Hawaii holding multiple jobs, the number of total employed has historically been lower than the number of total jobs. By 2045, projections indicate an average of 1.4 jobs per person.

Economy:

• Only moderate economic growth expected. Real gross domestic product projected to grow just 1.7 percent per year from 2016-2045. 
  • Factors: slowdown in construction, government contracts, and tourism growth.
• Total personal income projected to grow 1.96 percent per year from 2016-2045. 

For more information, see the full DBEDT report.